🔗 Share this article

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.